A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
