A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
